Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Compher on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Compher shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Compher 45.6% (+11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Compher 75.9%
Defensive zone
Compher 75.8%
Neutral zone
Compher 75.8%
Result
J.T. Compher favored at 75.8%
24.2%
75.8%
Matthews
Compher
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Matthews
Compher
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Compher
1
4
Matthews
Compher
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Compher
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Compher
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Compher
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
45.8% (847)
+12.5%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
40.8% (49)
+14.9%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
41.9% (117)
+8.8%
On power play, Matthews has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Compher shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. Compher is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (740).
Home / Away
Matthews
Compher
Home
59.1% (528)
45.1% (519)
Away
55.1% (695)
45.1% (494)
By Period
Matthews
Compher
P1
56.2%
45.8%
P2
58.1%
46.2%
P3
56.4%
43.2%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.5%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Compher
52.0%▼
55.5%
45.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 10:58 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 10:51 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 04:52 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |