Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on neutral-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings). Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Miller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Miller 57.6% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Miller leads 15-8 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Miller 56.1%
Defensive zone
Matthews 61.1%
Neutral zone
Matthews 51.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Matthews
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
15
(23 meetings)
8
15
Matthews
Miller
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
2
6
Matthews
Miller
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
1
Matthews
Miller
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
3
8
Matthews
Miller
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
58.2% (823)
+0.1%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
58.2% (165)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
58.9% (90)
-8.2%
On penalty kill, Miller has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Miller is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (754).
Home / Away
Matthews
Miller
Home
59.1% (528)
59.1% (558)
Away
55.1% (695)
57.3% (520)
By Period
Matthews
Miller
P1
56.2%
60.7%
P2
58.1%
57.5%
P3
56.4%
56.1%
OT
50.0%
73.3%
Final 5 min
55.5%
60.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 01:54 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 19:19 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 14:26 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 03:10 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:55 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:07 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:11 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 3 | 19:05 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 3 | 18:51 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 3 | 18:22 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 3 | 08:39 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 2 | 17:58 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:50 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 1 | 09:25 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 1 | 06:43 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 11:02 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:26 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |