Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +18.5% FO% edge overall. Miller wins 62.5% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 59.7% vs Novak 44.9% (+18.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 72.4%
Defensive zone
Novak 62.1%
Neutral zone
Novak 73.5%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 70.1%
29.9%
70.1%
Miller
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Miller
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Miller
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
1
0
Miller
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Miller
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
61.9% (459)
41.7% (206)
+20.2%
Power Play
66.0% (103)
52.6% (19)
+13.4%
On even strength, Miller has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Miller is 62.5% vs left-shot opponents (376).
Miller shoots left. Novak is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Miller
Novak
Home
62.5% (280)
44.9% (118)
Away
60.2% (334)
40.2% (107)
By Period
Miller
Novak
P1
59.2%
41.5%
P2
65.6%
44.0%
P3
59.1%
42.0%
Final 5 min
63.7%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
66.0%▬
66.5%
61.2%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 12:59 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 07:22 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 07:16 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:26 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |