Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Miller wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 54.8% vs Novak 43.3% (+12.0%)
H2H factor
Miller leads 12-9 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Miller 71.7%
Defensive zone
Miller 89.4%
Neutral zone
Miller 83.0%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 81.7%
81.7%
18.3%
Miller
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
9
(21 meetings)
12
9
Miller
Novak
Last 10: Miller 5-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
3
4
Miller
Novak
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
6
2
Miller
Novak
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Miller
Novak
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (6,648)
42.1% (1,539)
+13.1%
Power Play
57.9% (1,285)
51.9% (133)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (913)
50.0% (2)
-1.8%
On even strength, Miller has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Miller is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,907).
Miller shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Home / Away
Miller
Novak
Home
55.9% (4,578)
45.3% (814)
Away
53.8% (4,268)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Miller
Novak
P1
54.7%
43.9%
P2
55.6%
42.8%
P3
54.0%
41.7%
OT
62.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
55.2%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
54.9%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 12:59 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 07:22 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 07:16 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:26 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 19:47 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 08:29 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 3 | 17:07 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 3 | 17:02 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 3 | 15:41 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 2 | 13:02 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 2 | 08:13 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 15:19 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 08:19 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 15:29 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 11:56 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 09:29 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 11:08 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 1 | 12:10 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 19:50 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |