Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Miller wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 54.8% vs Novak 43.6% (+11.7%)
H2H factor
Miller leads 12-9 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Miller 72.5%
Defensive zone
Miller 88.3%
Neutral zone
Miller 80.9%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 80.9%
80.9%
19.1%
Miller
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
9
(21 meetings)
12
9
Miller
Novak
Last 10: Miller 5-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
3
4
Miller
Novak
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
6
2
Miller
Novak
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Miller
Novak
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (6,567)
42.2% (1,366)
+13.0%
Power Play
57.8% (1,266)
53.3% (120)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (900)
50.0% (2)
-1.9%
On even strength, Miller has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Miller is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,829).
Miller shoots left. Novak is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (955).
Home / Away
Miller
Novak
Home
55.8% (4,486)
46.0% (737)
Away
53.8% (4,247)
40.3% (751)
By Period
Miller
Novak
P1
54.6%
43.9%
P2
55.6%
44.2%
P3
53.9%
40.9%
OT
61.9%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.1%
40.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
66.0%▬
66.5%
54.8%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 12:59 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 07:22 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 07:16 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:26 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 19:47 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 08:29 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 3 | 17:07 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 3 | 17:02 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 3 | 15:41 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 2 | 13:02 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 2 | 08:13 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 15:19 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 08:19 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 15:29 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 11:56 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 09:29 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 11:08 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 1 | 12:10 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 19:50 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |