Scouting Report
Jack Drury holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Drury wins 58.5% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drury 57.0% vs McCarron 52.7% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
McCarron leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
McCarron 61.4%
Defensive zone
McCarron 88.9%
Neutral zone
McCarron 78.2%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 79.1%
20.9%
79.1%
Drury
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
10
(15 meetings)
5
10
Drury
McCarron
Last 10: Drury 3-7 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
2
Drury
McCarron
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
2
4
Drury
McCarron
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
2
4
Drury
McCarron
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drury
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (1,975)
53.4% (2,901)
+4.6%
Power Play
58.5% (118)
45.3% (86)
+13.2%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (292)
50.5% (463)
+1.6%
On power play, Drury has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Drury is 58.5% vs right-shot opponents (819).
Drury shoots left. McCarron is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,403).
Home / Away
Drury
McCarron
Home
58.3% (1,212)
52.3% (1,696)
Away
56.3% (1,173)
53.3% (1,754)
By Period
Drury
McCarron
P1
56.0%
53.9%
P2
58.6%
52.5%
P3
57.0%
52.0%
OT
62.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.7%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drury
64.0%▲
56.0%
57.3%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 15:13 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 07:32 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 15:35 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 16:09 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Jack Drury |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:00 | Defensive | Jack Drury |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 05:53 | Defensive | Jack Drury |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 19:13 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:15 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 13:48 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 13:36 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 02:40 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 1 | 12:50 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 1 | 05:18 | Neutral | Jack Drury |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 1 | 01:58 | Neutral | Jack Drury |