Scouting Report
Jack Eichel holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eichel 48.1% vs Cates 45.5% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 54.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 53.2%
Neutral zone
Cates 57.2%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Eichel
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Eichel
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Eichel
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eichel
1
0
Eichel
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eichel
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (858)
45.4% (712)
+2.3%
Power Play
55.6% (63)
42.2% (102)
+13.4%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (87)
44.7% (47)
+0.1%
On power play, Eichel has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Eichel is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (700).
Eichel shoots right. Cates is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Eichel
Cates
Home
47.7% (509)
46.3% (423)
Away
48.1% (499)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Eichel
Cates
P1
49.5%
46.3%
P2
48.5%
47.1%
P3
46.8%
42.1%
OT
37.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
52.8%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eichel
54.0%▲
50.5%
47.9%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 14:40 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 03:46 | Neutral | Jack Eichel |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:08 | Offensive | Noah Cates |