Scouting Report
Jack Eichel holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Eichel wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eichel 47.3% vs Cates 45.2% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 50.8%
Defensive zone
Cates 50.1%
Neutral zone
Cates 52.0%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Eichel
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Eichel
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Eichel
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eichel
1
0
Eichel
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eichel
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (639)
44.2% (566)
+2.7%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
44.0% (84)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
43.3% (67)
50.0% (38)
-6.7%
On power play, Eichel has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Eichel is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (520).
Eichel shoots right. Cates is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Home / Away
Eichel
Cates
Home
44.4% (385)
45.1% (350)
Away
49.6% (373)
43.8% (338)
By Period
Eichel
Cates
P1
48.0%
46.8%
P2
49.0%
46.5%
P3
45.0%
40.8%
OT
38.5%
20.0%
Final 5 min
52.6%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eichel
48.0%▲
46.5%
47.0%
Cates
56.0%▲
46.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 14:40 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 03:46 | Neutral | Jack Eichel |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:08 | Offensive | Noah Cates |