Scouting Report
Jack Eichel holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Eichel wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eichel 45.1% vs Cates 43.2% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 15-8 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 51.1%
Defensive zone
Cates 76.0%
Neutral zone
Cates 68.9%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 68.4%
31.6%
68.4%
Eichel
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
15
(23 meetings)
8
15
Eichel
Cates
Last 10: Eichel 2-8 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
4
Eichel
Cates
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
4
7
Eichel
Cates
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
3
4
Eichel
Cates
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eichel
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (8,462)
44.1% (2,742)
+0.6%
Power Play
52.8% (925)
43.0% (242)
+9.8%
Penalty Kill
38.3% (540)
34.9% (373)
+3.4%
On power play, Eichel has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Eichel is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (7,018).
Eichel shoots right. Cates is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,073).
Home / Away
Eichel
Cates
Home
45.7% (4,899)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
44.5% (5,028)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Eichel
Cates
P1
45.4%
44.5%
P2
45.8%
43.5%
P3
44.2%
41.2%
OT
44.2%
29.4%
Final 5 min
45.9%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eichel
54.0%▲
50.5%
45.1%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 14:40 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 03:46 | Neutral | Jack Eichel |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:08 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 07:07 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 14:26 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 11:34 | Offensive | Jack Eichel |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 02:56 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 12:34 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 10:12 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 04:36 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 19:05 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | Jack Eichel |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 09:54 | Defensive | Jack Eichel |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 09:31 | Defensive | Jack Eichel |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 07:00 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 17:40 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 07:52 | Neutral | Jack Eichel |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 04:32 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 16:26 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 13:18 | Defensive | Noah Cates |