Scouting Report
Jack Eichel holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Eichel wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eichel 45.8% vs Cates 40.4% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 64.8%
Defensive zone
Cates 70.4%
Neutral zone
Cates 62.9%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 66.9%
33.1%
66.9%
Eichel
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Eichel
Cates
Last 8: Eichel 3-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Eichel
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
3
Eichel
Cates
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eichel
2
1
Eichel
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eichel
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (708)
40.4% (841)
+5.1%
Power Play
51.9% (54)
42.4% (66)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
29.0% (31)
32.7% (147)
-3.7%
On power play, Eichel has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Eichel is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (591).
Eichel shoots right. Cates is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Home / Away
Eichel
Cates
Home
46.1% (388)
38.2% (566)
Away
44.4% (405)
41.0% (488)
By Period
Eichel
Cates
P1
46.8%
40.5%
P2
43.4%
42.4%
P3
45.4%
35.3%
OT
50.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
44.3%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eichel
54.0%▲
50.5%
45.3%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 17:40 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 07:52 | Neutral | Jack Eichel |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 04:32 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 16:26 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 13:18 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 02:13 | Defensive | Jack Eichel |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 11:45 | Neutral | Jack Eichel |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 06:47 | Neutral | Noah Cates |