Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +19.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Hughes 39.2% (+19.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 81.5%
Defensive zone
Matthews 98.0%
Neutral zone
Matthews 96.1%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 92.1%
92.1%
7.9%
Matthews
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Matthews
Hughes
Last 9: Matthews 7-2 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
2
Matthews
Hughes
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
0
Matthews
Hughes
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Hughes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
37.9% (623)
+20.4%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
33.3% (33)
+22.4%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
36.4% (11)
+14.3%
On power play, Matthews has a +22.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Hughes is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
Matthews
Hughes
Home
59.1% (528)
36.6% (314)
Away
55.1% (695)
38.5% (353)
By Period
Matthews
Hughes
P1
56.2%
36.4%
P2
58.1%
35.6%
P3
56.4%
41.8%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
36.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:28 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 14:23 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:41 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:34 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:24 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2 | 14:29 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 08:36 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 02:33 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 13:50 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |