Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Hughes 40.3% (+8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 77.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 95.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 93.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 91.4%
91.4%
8.6%
Nelson
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Nelson
Hughes
Last 7: Nelson 6-1 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Hughes
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
1
Nelson
Hughes
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
35.6% (281)
+10.5%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
50.0% (36)
-15.5%
On power play, Hughes has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Hughes is 35.0% vs left-shot opponents (206).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hughes
Home
48.7% (419)
38.4% (198)
Away
41.3% (368)
35.3% (119)
By Period
Nelson
Hughes
P1
44.6%
44.3%
P2
47.3%
34.2%
P3
43.0%
34.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 06:38 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 13:05 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 09:40 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 3 | 14:09 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 2 | 15:33 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 2 | 04:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 2 | 01:37 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |