Scouting Report
Jack McBain holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Hughes wins 34.9% vs left-shot opponents — McBain shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.6% vs McBain 46.7% (-10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 89.6%
Defensive zone
McBain 52.8%
Neutral zone
Hughes 78.2%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 76.2%
76.2%
23.8%
Hughes
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Hughes
McBain
Last 8: Hughes 2-6 McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Hughes
McBain
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
0
2
Hughes
McBain
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
0
2
Hughes
McBain
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,887)
48.0% (2,298)
-12.0%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
49.0% (51)
-10.2%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
35.7% (308)
-4.7%
On even strength, McBain has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Hughes is 34.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,931).
Hughes shoots left. McBain is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,667).
Home / Away
Hughes
McBain
Home
36.8% (1,670)
49.0% (1,359)
Away
35.4% (1,483)
44.0% (1,298)
By Period
Hughes
McBain
P1
36.9%
46.7%
P2
33.6%
47.5%
P3
38.1%
45.6%
OT
37.5%
37.5%
Final 5 min
34.2%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 16:57 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 13, 2023 | 3 | 16:50 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 13, 2023 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 3 | 11:31 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 2 | 10:04 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 1 | 00:34 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 03:15 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 1 | 09:04 | Neutral | Jack McBain |