Scouting Report
Jonathan Drouin holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 34.9% vs left-shot opponents — Drouin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.6% vs Drouin 44.5% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 53.7%
Defensive zone
Hughes 54.1%
Neutral zone
Hughes 54.0%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Hughes
Drouin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Hughes
Drouin
Last 5: Hughes 2-3 Drouin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Drouin
0
1
Hughes
Drouin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Drouin
0
1
Hughes
Drouin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
1
Hughes
Drouin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Drouin
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,887)
43.5% (1,824)
-7.5%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
48.3% (387)
-9.5%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
39.1% (23)
-8.1%
On power play, Drouin has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Drouin shoots left. Hughes is 34.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,931).
Hughes shoots left. Drouin is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,385).
Home / Away
Hughes
Drouin
Home
36.8% (1,670)
44.0% (1,041)
Away
35.4% (1,483)
44.5% (1,193)
By Period
Hughes
Drouin
P1
36.9%
45.9%
P2
33.6%
42.0%
P3
38.1%
45.0%
OT
37.5%
47.1%
Final 5 min
34.2%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 18:23 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 19:07 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 18:59 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 17:04 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 3 | 17:49 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |