Scouting Report
Jonathan Drouin holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 35.4% vs left-shot opponents — Drouin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 37.9% vs Drouin 45.6% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 57.5%
Defensive zone
Drouin 61.0%
Neutral zone
Hughes 59.6%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 55.1%
55.1%
44.9%
Hughes
Drouin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Hughes
Drouin
Last 5: Hughes 2-3 Drouin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Drouin
0
1
Hughes
Drouin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Drouin
0
1
Hughes
Drouin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
1
Hughes
Drouin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Drouin
Edge
Even Strength
34.9% (444)
45.1% (355)
-10.2%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
40.9% (22)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
0.0% (3)
+33.3%
On penalty kill, Hughes has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Drouin shoots left. Hughes is 35.4% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Hughes shoots left. Drouin is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (230).
Home / Away
Hughes
Drouin
Home
37.4% (235)
37.5% (160)
Away
33.2% (229)
49.5% (220)
By Period
Hughes
Drouin
P1
37.1%
40.3%
P2
33.7%
43.3%
P3
34.8%
49.6%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
32.7%
37.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.3%
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 18:23 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 19:07 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 18:59 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 17:04 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 3 | 17:49 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |