Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (36.1% vs 36.5%). Look for Hughes on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Hughes wins 38.1% vs right-shot opponents — Dach shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.6% vs Dach 37.3% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Hughes leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 62.6%
Defensive zone
Hughes 61.1%
Neutral zone
Dach 54.5%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Hughes
Dach
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Hughes
Dach
Last 10: Hughes 7-3 Dach
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hughes
Dach
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
1
Hughes
Dach
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
6
1
Hughes
Dach
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Dach
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,887)
36.5% (1,423)
-0.5%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
35.7% (98)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
36.0% (25)
-5.0%
On penalty kill, Dach has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dach shoots right. Hughes is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,222).
Hughes shoots left. Dach is 34.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,111).
Home / Away
Hughes
Dach
Home
36.8% (1,670)
37.0% (857)
Away
35.4% (1,483)
35.8% (689)
By Period
Hughes
Dach
P1
36.9%
35.3%
P2
33.6%
34.5%
P3
38.1%
40.4%
OT
37.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
34.2%
39.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Dach
42.0%▬
42.0%
36.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 03:37 | Offensive | Kirby Dach |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 14:29 | Defensive | Kirby Dach |
| Feb 25, 2022 | 3 | 15:45 | Neutral | Kirby Dach |
| Feb 25, 2022 | 2 | 14:09 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 25, 2022 | 2 | 09:12 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 25, 2022 | 2 | 01:34 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 25, 2022 | 1 | 17:39 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 25, 2022 | 1 | 09:41 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 25, 2022 | 1 | 06:42 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 15, 2021 | 3 | 10:52 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 15, 2021 | 2 | 01:05 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 15, 2021 | 2 | 00:51 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |