Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Hughes wins 35.4% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 37.9% vs Frost 46.2% (-10.5%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 89.9%
Defensive zone
Hughes 87.6%
Neutral zone
Hughes 87.0%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 87.9%
87.9%
12.1%
Hughes
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Hughes
Frost
Last 10: Hughes 3-7 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
1
Hughes
Frost
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
4
Hughes
Frost
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
5
Hughes
Frost
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
34.9% (444)
45.6% (833)
-10.7%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
46.0% (100)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
55.6% (18)
-22.3%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +22.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Hughes is 35.4% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Hughes shoots left. Frost is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (625).
Home / Away
Hughes
Frost
Home
37.4% (235)
47.0% (440)
Away
33.2% (229)
44.8% (511)
By Period
Hughes
Frost
P1
37.1%
42.5%
P2
33.7%
47.9%
P3
34.8%
46.6%
OT
100.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
32.7%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.3%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
45.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 14:06 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 11:02 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 10:20 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 12:32 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:25 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 04:12 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 07:45 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 07:41 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 08:26 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 18:18 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 18:09 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 10:39 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |