Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Hughes wins 35.0% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 40.3% vs Frost 49.5% (-12.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 74.8%
Defensive zone
Frost 86.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 86.4%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 80.6%
19.4%
80.6%
Hughes
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Hughes
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
0
Hughes
Frost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
0
Hughes
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
35.6% (281)
48.6% (704)
-13.0%
Power Play
50.0% (36)
55.7% (115)
-5.7%
On even strength, Frost has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Hughes is 35.0% vs left-shot opponents (206).
Hughes shoots left. Frost is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (492).
Home / Away
Hughes
Frost
Home
38.4% (198)
49.9% (399)
Away
35.3% (119)
49.1% (424)
By Period
Hughes
Frost
P1
44.3%
51.2%
P2
34.2%
53.9%
P3
34.0%
42.7%
Final 5 min
40.4%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.2%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 10:33 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 10:08 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |