Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +14.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Hughes wins 34.9% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.6% vs Frost 50.3% (-14.2%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 84.2%
Defensive zone
Hughes 87.6%
Neutral zone
Hughes 91.5%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 87.8%
87.8%
12.2%
Hughes
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
13
(19 meetings)
6
13
Hughes
Frost
Last 10: Hughes 3-7 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
4
3
Hughes
Frost
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
5
Hughes
Frost
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
2
5
Hughes
Frost
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,887)
49.4% (3,598)
-13.4%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
55.5% (625)
-16.7%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
52.8% (36)
-21.8%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +21.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Hughes is 34.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,931).
Hughes shoots left. Frost is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Home / Away
Hughes
Frost
Home
36.8% (1,670)
51.0% (2,047)
Away
35.4% (1,483)
49.7% (2,212)
By Period
Hughes
Frost
P1
36.9%
50.8%
P2
33.6%
51.1%
P3
38.1%
48.5%
OT
37.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
34.2%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 06:54 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 14:20 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 18:41 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 10:48 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 10:33 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 10:08 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 14:06 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 11:02 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 10:20 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 12:32 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:25 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 04:12 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 07:45 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 07:41 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 08:26 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 18:18 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 18:09 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 10:39 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |