Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +15.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 33.9% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.8% vs Zacha 51.7% (-15.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 55.5%
Defensive zone
Zacha 89.3%
Neutral zone
Zacha 61.9%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 72.7%
27.3%
72.7%
Hughes
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Hughes
Zacha
Last 7: Hughes 4-3 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
0
Hughes
Zacha
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
2
Hughes
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
1
Hughes
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
36.8% (266)
53.3% (646)
-16.5%
Power Play
14.3% (7)
53.0% (100)
-38.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
38.9% (72)
-5.6%
On power play, Zacha has a +38.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Hughes is 33.9% vs left-shot opponents (189).
Hughes shoots left. Zacha is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Home / Away
Hughes
Zacha
Home
35.1% (148)
51.7% (410)
Away
37.4% (131)
52.2% (408)
By Period
Hughes
Zacha
P1
43.0%
57.7%
P2
28.7%
48.9%
P3
35.2%
50.2%
Final 5 min
28.6%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.2%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 16:31 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 16:16 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 13:56 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 03:05 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |