Scouting Report
Tage Thompson holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Hughes wins 41.1% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.8% vs Thompson 45.3% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 67.2%
Defensive zone
Thompson 82.6%
Neutral zone
Thompson 64.4%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 65.8%
34.2%
65.8%
Hughes
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Hughes
Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
0
Hughes
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
0
Hughes
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
36.8% (266)
44.9% (642)
-8.1%
Power Play
14.3% (7)
47.9% (94)
-33.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
33.3% (33)
+0.0%
On power play, Thompson has a +33.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Hughes is 41.1% vs right-shot opponents (90).
Hughes shoots left. Thompson is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (549).
Home / Away
Hughes
Thompson
Home
35.1% (148)
46.0% (391)
Away
37.4% (131)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Hughes
Thompson
P1
43.0%
48.1%
P2
28.7%
44.9%
P3
35.2%
41.2%
Final 5 min
28.6%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.2%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 04:43 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 03:51 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |