Scouting Report
Tage Thompson holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 37.0% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.2% vs Thompson 43.7% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 53.2%
Defensive zone
Thompson 69.5%
Neutral zone
Thompson 69.2%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Hughes
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Hughes
Thompson
Last 5: Hughes 3-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
1
Hughes
Thompson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
0
Hughes
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Hughes
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (623)
41.9% (597)
-4.0%
Power Play
33.3% (33)
50.5% (95)
-17.2%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
25.0% (12)
+11.4%
On power play, Thompson has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Hughes is 37.0% vs right-shot opponents (208).
Hughes shoots left. Thompson is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Hughes
Thompson
Home
36.6% (314)
47.1% (367)
Away
38.5% (353)
38.0% (337)
By Period
Hughes
Thompson
P1
36.4%
44.2%
P2
35.6%
41.6%
P3
41.8%
42.9%
OT
0.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
36.4%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
34.0%▼
36.5%
37.6%
Thompson
34.0%▼
41.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 16:21 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 5, 2024 | 3 | 08:23 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 4, 2024 | 2 | 12:57 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 4, 2024 | 1 | 10:15 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 4, 2024 | 1 | 00:56 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |