Scouting Report
Tage Thompson holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Hughes wins 38.1% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.5% vs Thompson 42.9% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Hughes leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 73.2%
Defensive zone
Thompson 81.1%
Neutral zone
Thompson 90.9%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 80.5%
19.5%
80.5%
Hughes
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
3
(13 meetings)
10
3
Hughes
Thompson
Last 10: Hughes 8-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
5
1
Hughes
Thompson
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
1
Hughes
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
3
1
Hughes
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
35.9% (2,772)
43.0% (3,363)
-7.1%
Power Play
39.0% (223)
46.9% (369)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
33.3% (252)
-2.3%
On power play, Thompson has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Hughes is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,179).
Hughes shoots left. Thompson is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,874).
Home / Away
Hughes
Thompson
Home
36.7% (1,596)
45.1% (2,037)
Away
35.3% (1,441)
40.2% (1,947)
By Period
Hughes
Thompson
P1
36.3%
44.7%
P2
33.7%
43.5%
P3
38.3%
40.3%
OT
37.5%
37.5%
Final 5 min
34.4%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
34.0%▼
36.5%
36.0%
Thompson
34.0%▼
41.5%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 16:21 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 5, 2024 | 3 | 08:23 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 4, 2024 | 2 | 12:57 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 4, 2024 | 1 | 10:15 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 4, 2024 | 1 | 00:56 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 3 | 12:55 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 3 | 00:56 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 2 | 15:15 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 2 | 00:10 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 1 | 16:11 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 2 | 15:07 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |