Scouting Report
Tage Thompson holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Hughes wins 38.1% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.6% vs Thompson 42.8% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Hughes leads 12-3 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 72.8%
Defensive zone
Thompson 80.9%
Neutral zone
Thompson 91.2%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 80.5%
19.5%
80.5%
Hughes
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
3
(15 meetings)
12
3
Hughes
Thompson
Last 10: Hughes 8-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
6
1
Hughes
Thompson
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
1
Hughes
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
4
1
Hughes
Thompson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,887)
42.9% (3,521)
-6.9%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
46.8% (372)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
33.6% (265)
-2.6%
On power play, Thompson has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Hughes is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,222).
Hughes shoots left. Thompson is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,011).
Home / Away
Hughes
Thompson
Home
36.8% (1,670)
44.9% (2,115)
Away
35.4% (1,483)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Hughes
Thompson
P1
36.9%
44.5%
P2
33.6%
43.6%
P3
38.1%
40.2%
OT
37.5%
36.4%
Final 5 min
34.2%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 04:43 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 03:51 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 16:21 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 5, 2024 | 3 | 08:23 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 4, 2024 | 2 | 12:57 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 4, 2024 | 1 | 10:15 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 4, 2024 | 1 | 00:56 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 3 | 12:55 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 3 | 00:56 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 2 | 15:15 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 2 | 00:10 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 1 | 16:11 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 2 | 15:07 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |