Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — McBain shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs McBain 44.7% (+10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 96.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 77.1%
Neutral zone
Larkin 83.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 90.8%
90.8%
9.2%
Larkin
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Larkin
McBain
Last 7: Larkin 6-1 McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
0
Larkin
McBain
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
McBain
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
45.3% (675)
+8.3%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
50.0% (16)
+9.3%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
37.6% (149)
+11.1%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. McBain is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (502).
Home / Away
Larkin
McBain
Home
56.6% (700)
45.5% (437)
Away
52.1% (655)
42.4% (403)
By Period
Larkin
McBain
P1
55.4%
43.5%
P2
54.7%
44.0%
P3
52.7%
45.0%
OT
59.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.0%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2023 | 2 | 01:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 09:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 06:33 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 06:26 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 01:15 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 05:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 10:48 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |