Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McBain on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McBain wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 44.7% vs Staal 55.3% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 78.6%
Defensive zone
Staal 61.8%
Neutral zone
Staal 63.9%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
McBain
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
McBain
Staal
Last 7: McBain 4-3 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
McBain
Staal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
3
1
McBain
Staal
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McBain
Staal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (675)
56.3% (1,115)
-11.0%
Power Play
50.0% (16)
61.2% (67)
-11.2%
Penalty Kill
37.6% (149)
52.1% (292)
-14.5%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. McBain is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (502).
McBain shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (946).
Home / Away
McBain
Staal
Home
45.5% (437)
58.3% (705)
Away
42.4% (403)
53.3% (769)
By Period
McBain
Staal
P1
43.5%
54.5%
P2
44.0%
58.2%
P3
45.0%
54.1%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
43.6%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
44.0%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2023 | 3 | 08:55 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 3 | 08:37 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 1 | 16:33 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 1 | 09:15 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 1 | 08:57 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 16:41 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |