Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. McBain wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Staal 55.1% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 58.7%
Defensive zone
Staal 76.0%
Neutral zone
Staal 61.5%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 61.5%
38.5%
61.5%
McBain
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
McBain
Staal
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
2
0
McBain
Staal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (504)
57.2% (740)
-4.6%
Power Play
50.0% (12)
67.0% (88)
-17.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (42)
43.9% (187)
-10.6%
On power play, Staal has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. McBain is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (313).
McBain shoots left. Staal is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
McBain
Staal
Home
51.8% (251)
55.4% (518)
Away
50.5% (307)
55.7% (497)
By Period
McBain
Staal
P1
50.9%
53.6%
P2
53.9%
56.6%
P3
48.1%
55.7%
OT
100.0%
65.2%
Final 5 min
54.4%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
52.0%▲
49.5%
51.1%
Staal
42.0%▼
54.0%
55.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:38 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:33 | Neutral | Jack McBain |