Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. McBain wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Staal 54.6% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 61.1%
Defensive zone
Staal 73.2%
Neutral zone
Staal 60.0%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 60.0%
40.0%
60.0%
McBain
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
McBain
Staal
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
2
0
McBain
Staal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (545)
56.1% (955)
-4.0%
Power Play
57.1% (14)
66.9% (142)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (46)
43.0% (242)
-6.0%
On power play, Staal has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. McBain is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (349).
McBain shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Home / Away
McBain
Staal
Home
52.2% (289)
55.4% (663)
Away
50.0% (316)
54.4% (676)
By Period
McBain
Staal
P1
52.6%
55.1%
P2
53.6%
54.7%
P3
47.1%
53.9%
OT
50.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
51.1%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:38 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:33 | Neutral | Jack McBain |