Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McBain on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McBain wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 44.7% vs Frost 46.2% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 80.7%
Defensive zone
McBain 69.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 60.3%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 59.7%
59.7%
40.3%
McBain
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
McBain
Frost
Last 5: McBain 3-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
McBain
Frost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
3
1
McBain
Frost
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (675)
45.6% (833)
-0.3%
Power Play
50.0% (16)
46.0% (100)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
37.6% (149)
55.6% (18)
-18.0%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. McBain is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (502).
McBain shoots left. Frost is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (625).
Home / Away
McBain
Frost
Home
45.5% (437)
47.0% (440)
Away
42.4% (403)
44.8% (511)
By Period
McBain
Frost
P1
43.5%
42.5%
P2
44.0%
47.9%
P3
45.0%
46.6%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
43.6%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
44.0%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
45.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 03:09 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 18:01 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 10:42 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 1 | 00:44 | Defensive | Jack McBain |