Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 46.7% vs Frost 50.3% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 60.4%
Defensive zone
McBain 83.3%
Neutral zone
McBain 66.8%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 62.0%
62.0%
38.0%
McBain
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
McBain
Frost
Last 10: McBain 3-7 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
4
McBain
Frost
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
3
2
McBain
Frost
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
McBain
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (2,298)
49.4% (3,598)
-1.4%
Power Play
49.0% (51)
55.5% (625)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
35.7% (308)
52.8% (36)
-17.1%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. McBain is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,667).
McBain shoots left. Frost is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Home / Away
McBain
Frost
Home
49.0% (1,359)
51.0% (2,047)
Away
44.0% (1,298)
49.7% (2,212)
By Period
McBain
Frost
P1
46.7%
50.8%
P2
47.5%
51.1%
P3
45.6%
48.5%
OT
37.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.8%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
46.6%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 07:33 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 04:47 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 19:05 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 08:33 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 10:44 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 04:47 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 03:09 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 18:01 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 10:42 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 1 | 00:44 | Defensive | Jack McBain |