Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McBain wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Frost 55.7% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 61.0%
Defensive zone
McBain 87.6%
Neutral zone
McBain 74.1%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 63.6%
63.6%
36.4%
McBain
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McBain
Frost
Last 5: McBain 1-4 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
3
McBain
Frost
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
McBain
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (545)
54.9% (701)
-2.8%
Power Play
57.1% (14)
60.8% (166)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (46)
100.0% (5)
-63.0%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +63.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. McBain is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (349).
McBain shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Home / Away
McBain
Frost
Home
52.2% (289)
56.0% (443)
Away
50.0% (316)
56.6% (429)
By Period
McBain
Frost
P1
52.6%
58.9%
P2
53.6%
55.3%
P3
47.1%
54.0%
OT
50.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
51.1%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 07:33 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 04:47 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 19:05 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 08:33 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 10:44 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |