Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 51.9%). McBain wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Thomas 51.7% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 52.5%
Defensive zone
McBain 53.4%
Neutral zone
Thomas 51.8%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
McBain
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
McBain
Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McBain
Thomas
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (545)
50.1% (615)
+2.0%
Power Play
57.1% (14)
62.2% (98)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (46)
52.6% (114)
-15.6%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. McBain is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (256).
McBain shoots left. Thomas is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
McBain
Thomas
Home
52.2% (289)
51.9% (374)
Away
50.0% (316)
51.9% (453)
By Period
McBain
Thomas
P1
52.6%
49.2%
P2
53.6%
55.3%
P3
47.1%
50.6%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.1%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
51.1%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2026 | 3 | 19:52 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 04:01 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |