Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Roslovic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Roslovic 45.5% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 72.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 70.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 84.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 75.0%
75.0%
25.0%
Nelson
Roslovic
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Nelson
Roslovic
Last 8: Nelson 7-1 Roslovic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Roslovic
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Roslovic
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Roslovic
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Roslovic
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
45.8% (729)
+1.1%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
42.9% (105)
+14.5%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
38.2% (55)
-13.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roslovic shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Roslovic is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (566).
Home / Away
Nelson
Roslovic
Home
48.9% (521)
45.4% (447)
Away
45.5% (516)
44.6% (442)
By Period
Nelson
Roslovic
P1
45.9%
43.2%
P2
48.0%
44.7%
P3
48.0%
47.2%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
43.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Roslovic
50.0%▼
53.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 02:59 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 01:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 15:46 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 00:36 | Neutral | Jack Roslovic |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 13:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 07:03 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 04:29 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 1 | 18:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |