Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 50.1% vs Evans 52.6% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 87.1%
Defensive zone
Evans 52.4%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 67.0%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 69.4%
69.4%
30.6%
Cirelli
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Cirelli
Evans
Last 9: Cirelli 2-7 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cirelli
Evans
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
3
Cirelli
Evans
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
0
2
Cirelli
Evans
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (1,052)
54.4% (824)
-4.5%
Power Play
54.9% (82)
66.7% (9)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (158)
48.1% (289)
+0.6%
On power play, Evans has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Cirelli is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (462).
Cirelli shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Evans
Home
46.7% (649)
55.1% (541)
Away
53.5% (643)
50.8% (581)
By Period
Cirelli
Evans
P1
50.1%
51.8%
P2
51.1%
53.3%
P3
48.5%
53.8%
OT
64.3%
38.5%
Final 5 min
49.7%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
50.1%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:29 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:25 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 3 | 06:08 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:22 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 1 | 12:16 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 15:02 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 05:38 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 05:25 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |