Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Evans 52.6% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 89.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 61.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 70.2%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
McDavid
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McDavid
Evans
Last 5: McDavid 1-4 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
3
McDavid
Evans
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
0
1
McDavid
Evans
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
54.4% (824)
-6.7%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
66.7% (9)
-14.8%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
48.1% (289)
-25.9%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +25.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. McDavid is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (282).
McDavid shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Home / Away
McDavid
Evans
Home
47.3% (387)
55.1% (541)
Away
48.1% (389)
50.8% (581)
By Period
McDavid
Evans
P1
47.6%
51.8%
P2
50.0%
53.3%
P3
45.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
46.8%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 07:44 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 13:41 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 16:06 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 08:56 | Defensive | Jake Evans |