Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Toews 60.3% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 83.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 83.5%
Neutral zone
Toews 53.5%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Evans
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Evans
Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
2
Evans
Toews
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Toews
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
62.5% (696)
-6.3%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
59.6% (141)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
46.9% (32)
+8.5%
On power play, Evans has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Evans shoots right. Toews is 71.8% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Evans
Toews
Home
55.3% (374)
60.9% (435)
Away
57.1% (317)
62.0% (434)
By Period
Evans
Toews
P1
58.5%
59.8%
P2
55.7%
65.7%
P3
53.9%
58.8%
OT
66.7%
80.0%
Final 5 min
54.3%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 18:12 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 15:53 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 10:42 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 03:46 | Defensive | Jake Evans |