Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Staal 55.3% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 21-17 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 81.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 54.3%
Neutral zone
Staal 61.6%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 65.1%
34.9%
65.1%
Evans
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
17
(38 meetings)
21
17
Evans
Staal
Last 10: Evans 5-5 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
5
9
Evans
Staal
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
6
3
Evans
Staal
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
10
5
Evans
Staal
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,695)
55.9% (14,620)
-2.1%
Power Play
60.0% (70)
62.7% (1,745)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,222)
48.0% (2,896)
-0.9%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,695).
Evans shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,553).
Home / Away
Evans
Staal
Home
53.4% (2,593)
56.4% (9,663)
Away
51.0% (2,394)
54.3% (9,663)
By Period
Evans
Staal
P1
54.0%
55.2%
P2
50.9%
55.9%
P3
52.0%
54.9%
OT
46.5%
56.2%
Final 5 min
50.4%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2025 | 3 | 11:53 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 2 | 17:15 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:10 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 16:43 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 13:07 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 00:15 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 14:32 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 02:38 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 14:11 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 10:13 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 09:48 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 06:36 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 3 | 00:08 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 2 | 17:46 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |