Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Staal 54.2% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 63.8%
Defensive zone
Evans 55.6%
Neutral zone
Staal 59.6%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 56.4%
43.6%
56.4%
Evans
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Evans
Staal
Last 7: Evans 3-4 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
2
Evans
Staal
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Staal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
2
1
Evans
Staal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
57.0% (1,017)
-2.6%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
57.7% (26)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
45.1% (286)
+3.0%
On power play, Evans has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Evans shoots right. Staal is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Evans
Staal
Home
55.1% (541)
54.3% (667)
Away
50.8% (581)
54.7% (662)
By Period
Evans
Staal
P1
51.8%
56.2%
P2
53.3%
57.0%
P3
53.8%
49.7%
OT
38.5%
68.4%
Final 5 min
51.1%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2025 | 3 | 11:53 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 2 | 17:15 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:10 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 16:43 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 13:07 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |