Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Evans wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Dowling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Dowling 48.7% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowling 65.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 79.7%
Neutral zone
Evans 55.4%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Evans
Dowling
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Evans
Dowling
Last 7: Evans 4-3 Dowling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Dowling
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowling
0
1
Evans
Dowling
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
3
1
Evans
Dowling
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Dowling
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
48.7% (318)
+5.7%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
20.0% (5)
+46.7%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
50.0% (4)
-1.9%
On power play, Evans has a +46.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowling shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Evans shoots right. Dowling is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Home / Away
Evans
Dowling
Home
55.1% (541)
49.0% (145)
Away
50.8% (581)
47.8% (182)
By Period
Evans
Dowling
P1
51.8%
48.1%
P2
53.3%
49.1%
P3
53.8%
47.8%
Final 5 min
51.1%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
57.0%
52.9%
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 01:53 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:16 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 15:07 | Defensive | Justin Dowling |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 11:34 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 08:11 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 19:28 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 06:14 | Offensive | Justin Dowling |