Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Dowling 48.9% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowling 64.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 78.9%
Neutral zone
Evans 55.2%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
Evans
Dowling
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Evans
Dowling
Last 7: Evans 4-3 Dowling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Dowling
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowling
0
1
Evans
Dowling
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
3
1
Evans
Dowling
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Dowling
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,695)
49.4% (652)
+4.4%
Power Play
60.0% (70)
40.6% (32)
+19.4%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,222)
33.3% (9)
+13.8%
On power play, Evans has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowling shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,695).
Evans shoots right. Dowling is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (238).
Home / Away
Evans
Dowling
Home
53.4% (2,593)
48.2% (301)
Away
51.0% (2,394)
49.2% (392)
By Period
Evans
Dowling
P1
54.0%
47.6%
P2
50.9%
50.4%
P3
52.0%
48.3%
Final 5 min
50.4%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 01:53 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:16 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 15:07 | Defensive | Justin Dowling |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 11:34 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 08:11 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 19:28 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 06:14 | Offensive | Justin Dowling |