Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Stenlund 54.3% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 51.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 55.2%
Neutral zone
Evans 58.5%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Evans
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Evans
Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Stenlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Stenlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
56.1% (615)
+0.1%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
53.2% (47)
+16.8%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
52.1% (307)
+3.3%
On power play, Evans has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Evans is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (175).
Evans shoots right. Stenlund is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Evans
Stenlund
Home
55.3% (374)
57.0% (458)
Away
57.1% (317)
52.6% (511)
By Period
Evans
Stenlund
P1
58.5%
55.1%
P2
55.7%
53.3%
P3
53.9%
56.4%
OT
66.7%
42.1%
Final 5 min
54.3%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:34 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:59 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:36 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |