Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Stenlund 54.0% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Stenlund 50.3%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 51.9%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 51.8%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Evans
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Evans
Stenlund
Last 10: Evans 5-5 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
2
Evans
Stenlund
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
2
Evans
Stenlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Stenlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,695)
55.3% (2,703)
-1.5%
Power Play
60.0% (70)
52.6% (116)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,222)
50.6% (919)
-3.5%
On power play, Evans has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Evans is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,292).
Evans shoots right. Stenlund is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (931).
Home / Away
Evans
Stenlund
Home
53.4% (2,593)
54.3% (1,848)
Away
51.0% (2,394)
53.9% (1,890)
By Period
Evans
Stenlund
P1
54.0%
56.4%
P2
50.9%
53.3%
P3
52.0%
52.8%
OT
46.5%
52.9%
Final 5 min
50.4%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:34 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:59 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:36 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 11:09 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 26, 2024 | 3 | 19:14 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 2 | 06:11 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 14:26 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 03:22 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 19:49 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 16:35 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |