Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.2% vs 56.9%). Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Evans wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Eller 55.7% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Eller 69.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 66.2%
Neutral zone
Evans 50.8%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Evans
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Evans
Eller
Last 10: Evans 4-6 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Eller
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
5
2
Evans
Eller
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
0
3
Evans
Eller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
56.5% (434)
-0.3%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
77.8% (9)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
56.5% (46)
-1.1%
On power play, Eller has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Evans shoots right. Eller is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (187).
Home / Away
Evans
Eller
Home
55.3% (374)
53.1% (211)
Away
57.1% (317)
59.7% (278)
By Period
Evans
Eller
P1
58.5%
55.4%
P2
55.7%
58.1%
P3
53.9%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.3%
60.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | 3 | 02:00 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 11, 2026 | 1 | 18:49 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:41 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 09:53 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 07:55 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 10:05 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 04:58 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:09 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 01:11 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 10:15 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 06:48 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 02:13 | Defensive | Jake Evans |