Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs McTavish 49.0% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 86.3%
Defensive zone
Evans 81.8%
Neutral zone
McTavish 53.6%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Evans
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Evans
McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
1
Evans
McTavish
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
47.6% (616)
+8.6%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
57.8% (102)
+12.2%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
33.3% (6)
+22.1%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +22.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Evans shoots right. McTavish is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (256).
Home / Away
Evans
McTavish
Home
55.3% (374)
52.2% (389)
Away
57.1% (317)
45.1% (335)
By Period
Evans
McTavish
P1
58.5%
50.0%
P2
55.7%
47.9%
P3
53.9%
49.0%
OT
66.7%
40.0%
Final 5 min
54.3%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 17:25 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |