Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs McTavish 50.6% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 72.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 85.0%
Neutral zone
Evans 54.3%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 67.3%
67.3%
32.7%
Evans
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Evans
McTavish
Last 5: Evans 3-2 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
1
Evans
McTavish
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
McTavish
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
1
Evans
McTavish
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
51.1% (769)
+3.3%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
50.6% (178)
+16.1%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
28.6% (14)
+19.5%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Evans shoots right. McTavish is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Home / Away
Evans
McTavish
Home
55.1% (541)
52.3% (461)
Away
50.8% (581)
49.2% (500)
By Period
Evans
McTavish
P1
51.8%
51.5%
P2
53.3%
54.0%
P3
53.8%
47.1%
OT
38.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:54 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 01:10 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 9, 2024 | 2 | 18:14 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:53 | Defensive | Jake Evans |