Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs McTavish 48.7% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 14-9 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 60.6%
Defensive zone
Evans 89.1%
Neutral zone
Evans 61.0%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 64.5%
64.5%
35.5%
Evans
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
9
(23 meetings)
14
9
Evans
McTavish
Last 10: Evans 6-4 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Evans
McTavish
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
8
1
Evans
McTavish
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
2
4
Evans
McTavish
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,695)
48.2% (2,788)
+5.6%
Power Play
60.0% (70)
52.6% (435)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,222)
34.3% (35)
+12.8%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,695).
Evans shoots right. McTavish is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
Home / Away
Evans
McTavish
Home
53.4% (2,593)
49.8% (1,678)
Away
51.0% (2,394)
47.4% (1,580)
By Period
Evans
McTavish
P1
54.0%
50.0%
P2
50.9%
47.8%
P3
52.0%
48.4%
OT
46.5%
43.5%
Final 5 min
50.4%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 17:25 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:54 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 01:10 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 9, 2024 | 2 | 18:14 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:53 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 17:37 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 13:21 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 19:43 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 04:28 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 04:12 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 11:00 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 07:33 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 05:19 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 16:40 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 11:00 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 14:45 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 14:39 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 00:48 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |