Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 51.7%). Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.0% vs McTavish 51.5% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 65.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 88.5%
Neutral zone
Evans 56.5%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 59.0%
59.0%
41.0%
Evans
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
5
(16 meetings)
11
5
Evans
McTavish
Last 10: Evans 8-2 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
4
3
Evans
McTavish
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
5
1
Evans
McTavish
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
2
1
Evans
McTavish
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (807)
51.3% (725)
+3.1%
Power Play
55.0% (20)
55.8% (113)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
46.1% (310)
28.6% (7)
+17.5%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Evans is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (855).
Evans shoots right. McTavish is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (265).
Home / Away
Evans
McTavish
Home
53.7% (581)
52.0% (454)
Away
50.5% (556)
51.4% (391)
By Period
Evans
McTavish
P1
54.6%
51.3%
P2
50.0%
50.4%
P3
52.3%
53.3%
OT
46.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.6%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 17:37 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 13:21 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 19:43 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 04:28 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 04:12 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 11:00 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 07:33 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 05:19 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 16:40 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 11:00 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 14:45 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 14:39 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 00:48 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 13:16 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 05:59 | Neutral | Jake Evans |