Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 56.8% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 51.7% vs Zibanejad 49.5% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 55.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 80.1%
Neutral zone
Evans 67.1%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 67.8%
67.8%
32.2%
Evans
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Evans
Zibanejad
Last 5: Evans 4-1 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Zibanejad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Zibanejad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Zibanejad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (483)
50.1% (1,051)
+4.4%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
58.3% (120)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (155)
41.9% (227)
+2.0%
On even strength, Evans has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Evans is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Evans shoots right. Zibanejad is 50.1% vs right-shot opponents (369).
Home / Away
Evans
Zibanejad
Home
49.4% (336)
49.0% (681)
Away
54.8% (314)
49.9% (717)
By Period
Evans
Zibanejad
P1
55.8%
49.9%
P2
51.7%
47.6%
P3
48.2%
51.1%
OT
100.0%
48.3%
Final 5 min
49.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.0%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 16:31 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 14:46 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 11:37 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 14:21 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 1 | 17:42 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |