Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.9% vs 52.0%). Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Zibanejad 51.8% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 52.6%
Defensive zone
Evans 82.7%
Neutral zone
Evans 56.1%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
Evans
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Evans
Zibanejad
Last 7: Evans 6-1 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
1
Evans
Zibanejad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Zibanejad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
5
0
Evans
Zibanejad
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
52.9% (870)
+1.5%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
53.5% (43)
+13.2%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
46.2% (143)
+1.9%
On power play, Evans has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Evans is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (284).
Evans shoots right. Zibanejad is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (308).
Home / Away
Evans
Zibanejad
Home
55.1% (541)
55.1% (501)
Away
50.8% (581)
49.2% (555)
By Period
Evans
Zibanejad
P1
51.8%
57.5%
P2
53.3%
50.7%
P3
53.8%
47.9%
OT
38.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.1%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2025 | 3 | 19:47 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 1 | 14:43 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 1 | 11:17 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 07:06 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 08:22 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 05:40 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 12:52 | Neutral | Jake Evans |