Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 59.4% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.2% vs Zibanejad 52.3% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 60.3%
Defensive zone
Evans 87.4%
Neutral zone
Evans 64.2%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 69.7%
69.7%
30.3%
Evans
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Evans
Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Zibanejad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Zibanejad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
1
Evans
Zibanejad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (591)
53.9% (894)
+2.1%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
46.7% (45)
+26.0%
Penalty Kill
54.7% (243)
45.8% (155)
+8.9%
On power play, Evans has a +26.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Evans is 59.4% vs right-shot opponents (212).
Evans shoots right. Zibanejad is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Home / Away
Evans
Zibanejad
Home
54.9% (452)
50.3% (523)
Away
57.0% (393)
54.5% (571)
By Period
Evans
Zibanejad
P1
57.5%
53.7%
P2
55.8%
52.1%
P3
54.2%
51.3%
OT
57.1%
60.0%
Final 5 min
54.7%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
60.0%▲
54.5%
55.9%
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
55.5%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:07 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 15:46 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:45 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:32 | Defensive | Jake Evans |