Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Zibanejad 51.6% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 51.3%
Defensive zone
Evans 86.6%
Neutral zone
Evans 68.5%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 72.6%
72.6%
27.4%
Evans
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Evans
Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Zibanejad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Zibanejad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
1
Evans
Zibanejad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
53.4% (770)
+2.8%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
46.2% (39)
+23.8%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
44.7% (141)
+10.7%
On power play, Evans has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Evans is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (175).
Evans shoots right. Zibanejad is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (253).
Home / Away
Evans
Zibanejad
Home
55.3% (374)
49.0% (429)
Away
57.1% (317)
54.1% (521)
By Period
Evans
Zibanejad
P1
58.5%
53.0%
P2
55.7%
51.1%
P3
53.9%
51.0%
OT
66.7%
60.0%
Final 5 min
54.3%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:07 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 15:46 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:45 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:32 | Defensive | Jake Evans |