Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Backlund 49.7% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 52.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 54.7%
Neutral zone
Backlund 50.5%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Evans
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Evans
Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Backlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Evans
Backlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
50.1% (891)
+6.1%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
53.1% (64)
+16.9%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
47.8% (278)
+7.6%
On power play, Evans has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Evans shoots right. Backlund is 49.2% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Evans
Backlund
Home
55.3% (374)
48.1% (580)
Away
57.1% (317)
51.1% (653)
By Period
Evans
Backlund
P1
58.5%
45.1%
P2
55.7%
54.7%
P3
53.9%
49.0%
OT
66.7%
46.2%
Final 5 min
54.3%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 19:55 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 12:52 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |