Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Backlund 49.0% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 17-16 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 70.6%
Defensive zone
Evans 66.3%
Neutral zone
Backlund 54.5%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
Evans
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
17
(33 meetings)
16
17
Evans
Backlund
Last 10: Evans 6-4 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
6
5
Evans
Backlund
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
8
7
Evans
Backlund
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
5
Evans
Backlund
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,695)
49.7% (13,410)
+4.1%
Power Play
60.0% (70)
51.6% (1,336)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,222)
44.0% (2,446)
+3.1%
On power play, Evans has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,695).
Evans shoots right. Backlund is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (6,244).
Home / Away
Evans
Backlund
Home
53.4% (2,593)
49.7% (8,565)
Away
51.0% (2,394)
48.3% (8,632)
By Period
Evans
Backlund
P1
54.0%
48.5%
P2
50.9%
50.3%
P3
52.0%
48.4%
OT
46.5%
44.1%
Final 5 min
50.4%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 19:55 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 12:52 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 19:20 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 18:41 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 16:38 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 17:25 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 2 | 03:15 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 3 | 13:03 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 3 | 04:19 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 2 | 14:38 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 2 | 04:16 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 2 | 00:53 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 13:54 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 13:28 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 09:02 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 08:53 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 03:03 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 07:41 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 2 | 09:43 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 1 | 12:29 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |