Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Evans wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Geekie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Geekie 47.6% (+10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Geekie 73.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 92.7%
Neutral zone
Evans 71.1%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 63.4%
63.4%
36.6%
Evans
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Evans
Geekie
Last 9: Evans 5-4 Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
0
4
Evans
Geekie
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
5
0
Evans
Geekie
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
47.0% (117)
+9.2%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
47.1% (34)
+22.9%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
0.0% (3)
+55.4%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +55.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Evans is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (175).
Evans shoots right. Geekie is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (59).
Home / Away
Evans
Geekie
Home
55.3% (374)
45.3% (75)
Away
57.1% (317)
46.8% (79)
By Period
Evans
Geekie
P1
58.5%
43.1%
P2
55.7%
48.1%
P3
53.9%
47.5%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.3%
37.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Geekie
46.0%▼
47.5%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 16:21 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 14:11 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 07:50 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 01:13 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:44 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:12 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 10:50 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 01:05 | Defensive | Jake Evans |