Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 49.8% vs MacKinnon 45.9% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 81.9%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 55.2%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 66.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 72.3%
27.7%
72.3%
Evans
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Evans
MacKinnon
Last 6: Evans 2-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Evans
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Evans
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (739)
45.8% (755)
+5.5%
Power Play
53.3% (15)
48.3% (60)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (172)
27.6% (29)
+15.4%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Evans is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Evans shoots right. MacKinnon is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (208).
Home / Away
Evans
MacKinnon
Home
52.1% (503)
49.5% (396)
Away
47.0% (423)
41.7% (448)
By Period
Evans
MacKinnon
P1
50.5%
50.2%
P2
47.7%
43.8%
P3
51.3%
41.4%
OT
40.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.1%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
49.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 09:50 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 08:06 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 11:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 04:59 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 19:09 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 06:20 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |